A Dogecoin exchange-traded fund is likely, with Bloomberg analysts giving it a 75% chance of approval. This puts it ahead of Solana and XRP, which are often seen as having stronger use cases.
The SEC has also acknowledged Grayscale’s application for a Dogecoin ETF, signalling a shift in how regulators view cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. With institutional interest growing, the approval of a Dogecoin ETF could be closer than expected.
Why a Dogecoin ETF is More Likely Than Solana or XRP
Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart believe that a Dogecoin ETF has a stronger chance of approval than those for Solana and XRP.
They estimate the odds at 75%, compared to 70% for Solana and 65% for XRP. This is even though Solana and XRP have more defined use cases, while Dogecoin started as a joke.
The main reason for this is regulation. Unlike Solana and XRP, Dogecoin has never been classified as a security by the SEC. This is important because the agency has taken legal action against projects that it sees as offering unregistered securities.
Solana and XRP have been directly named in lawsuits, making it harder for them to gain approval for an exchange-traded fund.
Litecoin is seen as the most likely to receive approval, with analysts putting the chances at 90%. This is because Litecoin is based on the Bitcoin blockchain and shares many of its characteristics.
Since Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency to have an exchange-traded fund approved, Litecoin is expected to follow. However, Dogecoin is next in line, and its widespread recognition makes it a serious contender.
Another factor is the change in leadership at the SEC. Under Gary Gensler, the agency was reluctant to approve anything beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Now, with Mark Uyeda as acting chairman and Paul Atkins expected to take over permanently, there is a more open approach to crypto regulation.
Uyeda has already set up a task force to reassess how the SEC deals with cryptocurrencies, including pausing legal action against Binance.
The launch of the Grayscale Dogecoin Trust in January also shows that institutional interest in Dogecoin is growing. Grayscale argues that Dogecoin is no longer just a joke but has become a recognised method of payment and a tool for financial inclusion.
As the eighth largest cryptocurrency, it has a strong presence in the market and a dedicated community that could support an exchange-traded fund.
The SEC is Considering a Dogecoin ETF Application
The SEC has formally acknowledged Grayscale’s application for a Dogecoin exchange-traded fund. This is an important step in the approval process, as it means the application will now go through public consultation before a decision is made.
The agency will either approve it, reject it, or extend its review period. The fact that the application has reached this stage suggests that the SEC is more willing to consider Dogecoin as a legitimate financial asset.
This could be a turning point for memecoins. If a Dogecoin exchange-traded fund is approved, it would show that cryptocurrencies created for fun can still gain institutional recognition. It could also encourage applications for other memecoins, expanding the market beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The changing attitude of regulators can be seen in other areas as well. In early 2024, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds after years of resistance.
More recently, the Chicago Board Options Exchange amended its application for Bitcoin and Ethereum funds to allow investors to receive payouts in cryptocurrency rather than cash. This shift could make it easier for other cryptocurrencies to gain approval for similar products.
Dogecoin has a strong case for approval because of its widespread use and community support. While it was created as a joke, it has been integrated into major exchanges and payment systems.
High-profile figures like Elon Musk have also contributed to its continued relevance. These factors could help make the case that Dogecoin deserves an exchange-traded fund.
Conclusion
The possibility of a Dogecoin exchange-traded fund is stronger than ever. With regulatory changes and growing institutional interest, analysts now see it as having a 75% chance of approval.
The SEC’s decision to review Grayscale’s application is another sign that Dogecoin is being taken seriously as a financial asset. If approved, it could be a significant moment for cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. For now, all eyes are on the SEC’s next move.